Critical reasoning — employment ultimatum outcomes: A GM orders four managers to resign by next day or face termination; three resign the same evening — deduce whether the fourth will resign next day or be terminated

Given data

• Statement: GM to four managers — submit resignation by next day or face termination. Three resign by evening.
• Conclusions:
  • I: The remaining manager will resign the next day.
  • II: The GM will terminate his services the next day.

Concept/Approach

An ultimatum presents mutually exclusive outcomes for non-compliance by the deadline: resignation or termination. From the statement alone, we cannot fix which will occur, but one of the two is the intended consequence.

Step-by-Step logic1) The remaining manager may choose to resign by the deadline ⇒ I is possible but not certain.2) If he does not resign, the GM's order implies termination ⇒ II is possible but not certain.3) Since exactly one of the two is expected under the ultimatum, the disjunctive conclusion holds: 'Either I or II follows.'

Verification/Alternative

The structure 'resign or be terminated' logically narrows outcomes to the two; absent new information (reprieve), one of them should occur.

Common pitfalls

• Committing to a specific outcome without evidence.
• Assuming both could occur (they are mutually exclusive).

Final AnswerEither I or II follows.