Eyewitness reliability – choose the most probable combined description of the mugger Four witnesses each give a different description; which description is most likely correct?
Logical Reasoning
Logical Problems
Difficulty: Easy
Choose an option
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AHe was average height, thin, and middle-aged.
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BHe was tall, thin, and middle-aged.
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CHe was tall, thin, and young.
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DHe was tall, of average weight, and middle-aged.
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EHe was short, heavy, and middle-aged.
Answer
Correct Answer: He was tall, thin, and middle-aged.
Explanation
Introduction / Context:This problem tests consensus reasoning. When multiple eyewitnesses give differing descriptions, the best estimate of truth usually combines the most frequently repeated attributes across reports.
Given Data / Assumptions:
- We have four conflicting descriptions, but options synthesize common traits.
- Typical approach: identify features (height, build, age) that appear most often among accounts.
- No single original report is guaranteed correct; we infer the most probable composite.
Concept / Approach:Use the “majority overlap” heuristic. If “tall” occurs in most accounts and “thin” occurs in most accounts, and “middle-aged” is more common than “young,” select the option combining those prevailing traits.
Step-by-Step Solution:
Scan options for common traits: “tall” appears in multiple choices; “thin” appears in several; “middle-aged” appears more often than “young.”Identify the choice combining these frequent descriptors: “tall, thin, and middle-aged.”Thus, option combining the modal traits is most plausible as a consensus reconstruction.Verification / Alternative check:
If two attributes tie, prefer the one that best maximizes overlap across all three categories simultaneously; here, tall + thin + middle-aged yields the highest joint frequency.Why Other Options Are Wrong:
Average height or average weight reduce overlap relative to “tall” and “thin.”“Young” appears less often than “middle-aged,” lowering likelihood.An entirely different build/height (e.g., short, heavy) is not supported by majority features.Common Pitfalls:
Focusing on one attribute in isolation instead of maximizing agreement across all three.Final Answer:He was tall, thin, and middle-aged.