Critical reasoning – Should opinion polls that predict election outcomes be banned in India? Arguments to evaluate: I. Yes. Such polls may influence voters' minds and thereby affect the outcome. II. No. These polls are conducted all over the world.

Difficulty: Medium

Correct Answer: Only argument I is strong

Explanation:


Introduction / Context:
In argument-evaluation questions, we judge whether each stated argument is “strong” or “weak” relative to the given policy question. A strong argument is logically relevant, specific, and addresses consequences or principles directly connected to the decision. A weak argument is vague, emotional, based on popularity, or unrelated to the decision criteria.



Given Data / Assumptions:

  • Policy question: Should pre-election opinion polls be banned in India?
  • Argument I claims opinion polls can influence voter behavior and thus the final result.
  • Argument II claims that such polls are common around the world.


Concept / Approach:
We assess each argument's merit by checking relevance to democratic fairness, voter autonomy, and evidence-based consequences. An appeal to prevalence (“others do it”) is generally a weak basis for a policy choice unless it explains why it is appropriate in the local context.



Step-by-Step Solution:
Evaluate Argument I: If opinion polls shape voter preferences by creating bandwagon or underdog effects, they may distort free and independent choice. This speaks directly to electoral integrity and is a relevant, impact-focused reason. Hence, Argument I is strong.Evaluate Argument II: Saying “polls are conducted all over the world” is an appeal to practice. It does not address whether they are beneficial or harmful in the Indian context, nor does it weigh local laws, media literacy, or electoral vulnerabilities. Therefore, Argument II is weak.



Verification / Alternative check:
A good test is: if Argument II were true, does it help decide the policy here? Global prevalence alone does not logically justify local adoption or rejection. By contrast, Argument I speaks to a clear potential harm: influencing outcomes.



Why Other Options Are Wrong:

  • Only argument II is strong: Incorrect because II is merely an appeal to popularity.
  • Either I or II is strong: Incorrect; only I is strong.
  • Neither I nor II is strong: Incorrect; I is strong.
  • Both I and II are strong: Incorrect; II is weak.


Common Pitfalls:
Confusing “common elsewhere” with “suitable here”; ignoring the direct effect of polls on voter autonomy.



Final Answer:
Only argument I is strong

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