Project management: In general practice, is PERT preferred over CPM for project evaluation when activity times are uncertain (e.g., R&D, new product development)?
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AYes
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BNo
Answer
Correct Answer: Yes
Explanation
Introduction / Context:PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method) are network-based planning tools. Their suitability depends on the nature of activity durations.
Given Data / Assumptions:
- Pertinent context: uncertain activity times (e.g., R&D).
- PERT uses three-time estimates; CPM commonly assumes deterministic times.
- Goal is project evaluation in the presence of uncertainty.
Concept / Approach:PERT models uncertainty via optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic times to compute expected durations and variance. This supports probabilistic completion analysis. CPM, while powerful for cost–time trade-offs with known times, is less suited for high uncertainty without modification.
Step-by-Step Solution:
Identify project type: uncertain durations → choose PERT.Use three estimates to compute expected time: te = (to + 4tm + tp) / 6.Evaluate critical path and project completion probability using variances.Verification / Alternative check:Standard PM references recommend PERT for research or novel endeavours with variability in task times.
Why Other Options Are Wrong:“No” would ignore PERT’s core strength: handling uncertain durations for evaluation.
Common Pitfalls:Using single-point estimates in highly uncertain environments; neglecting variance aggregation along the critical path.
Final Answer:
Yes