Critical Reasoning – Best inference from a labour-market forecast and industry comment Passage: U.S. Labour Ministry data indicate that by the year 2000 there will be a shortage of about 100,000 programmers. An industry spokesperson adds, “America needs Indian programmers. This is not only a question of investment but also of the talent with which Indian programmers are equipped.”
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AIn many other sectors, there will also be a shortage of talented labour until the year 2000.
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BIndian programmers are the most talented in the world.
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CIndian programmers are available at much lower salaries than programmers from other countries.
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DThe United States is likely to recruit Indian programmers to mitigate the projected shortfall because their talent is valued.
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EThe Indian software market is fully equipped to export finished programs rather than people.
Answer
Correct Answer: The United States is likely to recruit Indian programmers to mitigate the projected shortfall because their talent is valued.
Explanation
Introduction / Context:This argument-based question asks you to choose the inference that best follows from two premises: an official U.S. forecast of a programmer shortage and an industry statement highlighting the need for Indian programmers due to their talent. We must select the conclusion that is supported without adding unwarranted claims.
Given Data / Assumptions:
- Forecast: ~100,000 programmer shortage in the U.S. by the given horizon.
- Industry view: America “needs Indian programmers,” emphasizing their talent, not only investment.
- No information is given about salaries, other sectors, or the entire Indian software export market.
Concept / Approach:Use the principle of “best supported inference.” Prefer an option that (1) stays within the scope of the premises, (2) directly addresses the shortage with a realistic mitigation, and (3) reflects the talent emphasis made by the spokesperson.
Step-by-Step Solution:
The shortage creates demand.The spokesperson identifies Indian programmers as a needed source due to talent.Therefore, a reasonable, supported inference is U.S. recruitment of Indian programmers to address the gap (Option D).Verification / Alternative check:
Option D neither exaggerates (no superlatives) nor introduces new variables (like salary). It links the shortage to the cited source of talent.Why Other Options Are Wrong:
A: Generalizes to “many other sectors”—unsupported.B: “Most talented in the world” is an extreme claim absent from the passage.C: Introduces a cost argument not mentioned by the spokesperson.E: Shifts to exporting software products rather than talent; out of scope.Common Pitfalls:
Reading unstated motives (e.g., cost savings) into a statement that explicitly stresses talent.Final Answer:The United States is likely to recruit Indian programmers to mitigate the projected shortfall because their talent is valued.