On a systems development project, a project manager named Richard needs two programmers for a new software module. He remembers that John and Smith previously developed a very similar program in 40 days with the same type of work and team structure. Without performing any fresh detailed bottom up analysis, he simply adopts 40 days as the duration estimate for the new activity. In project management, this scenario is an example of which type of estimating technique?

Introduction / Context:
Analogous estimating is a very common technique in project time and cost management, especially during the early stages of a project when detailed information is still limited. In the scenario described, Richard uses the actual duration from a previous similar software development effort and directly applies it to a new activity. This question tests whether you can recognise that this is not parametric estimating or detailed bottom up work but rather a top down analogy based on historical data from a comparable project. Understanding this distinction is important for the Project Management Professional examination and for practical project planning in real organisations.

Given Data / Assumptions:
- The project is a systems development project that requires two programmers.
- John and Smith previously created a similar program in 40 days with a comparable level of scope and complexity.
- Richard assumes that the new program is similar enough that the same duration is reasonable.
- There is no mention of a detailed breakdown of tasks or calculation of productivity rates.

Concept / Approach:
Analogous estimating uses the actual costs or durations from a previous, similar project or activity as the basis for estimating the cost or duration of a current activity. It is a form of expert judgment and historical information. It is considered a top down method because it works at a higher level, without detailed analysis of every work package. Parametric estimating, by contrast, uses a statistical relationship such as hours per unit or cost per square metre. Bottom up estimating aggregates estimates of lower level components. Recognising that Richard simply uses the previous 40 day duration helps identify the technique as analogous estimating.

Step-by-Step Solution:
Step 1: Read the scenario carefully and highlight that John and Smith completed a similar program in 40 days. Step 2: Note that Richard directly adopts the same 40 day duration for his new but similar software activity. Step 3: Check whether any formulas or productivity rates are mentioned. None are given, so it is not parametric estimating. Step 4: Confirm that there is no evidence of a detailed work breakdown structure with individual activity estimates, so it is not bottom up estimating. Step 5: Recognise that the estimate is based on historical information from a comparable project, which matches the definition of analogous estimating.
Verification / Alternative check:
A simple verification is to match keywords from the scenario with definitions from the Project Management Body of Knowledge. Phrases like similar program and past performance strongly point to an analogy with previous work. If you compare this with the definition of parametric estimating, which requires a rate such as rupees per kilometre or hours per drawing, you will see that such a rate is missing. Therefore the only technique that accurately describes the situation is analogous estimating. This cross check confirms the choice.

Why Other Options Are Wrong:
Parametric estimating is wrong because no statistical relationship or unit rate is used. Rule of thumb estimating is too informal and suggests no link to real historical data. Fixed rate estimating relates to commercial rates and pricing, not to schedule duration. Bottom up estimating would require the activity to be decomposed into smaller tasks and each one estimated, which is not described in the scenario.

Common Pitfalls:
A common mistake is to choose parametric estimating whenever you see a number from history. However parametric methods require units and rates, not just one total duration. Another pitfall is to assume that any quick estimate is rule of thumb, even when historical project records are clearly referenced. Finally, some candidates confuse analogous and expert judgment. Expert judgment can influence many estimating methods, but analogous estimating specifically uses data from a similar completed project or activity.

Final Answer:
The scenario describes analogous (top down) estimating using similar past projects as the estimating technique used by Richard.