Assuming that the phases in a project life cycle are concept, development, implementation, and termination, which phase typically has the highest degree of uncertainty regarding scope, technology, and cost?

Difficulty: Easy

Correct Answer: Concept phase, when the project idea is being defined and evaluated

Explanation:


Introduction / Context:
A typical project life cycle consists of early phases where ideas are formed and later phases where work is executed and closed. The level of uncertainty is not constant across these phases. Understanding how uncertainty varies helps project managers make realistic estimates and manage risk. The question focuses on which phase usually has the highest uncertainty about scope, technology, and cost.


Given Data / Assumptions:
- The project life cycle phases are concept, development, implementation, and termination. - Uncertainty refers to unknowns about scope, technology, cost, and other key factors. - The question asks which phase typically has the highest uncertainty. - Standard project life cycle behavior is assumed.


Concept / Approach:
In most projects, uncertainty is highest at the beginning and decreases over time as more information is gathered and decisions are made. During the concept phase, objectives may still be evolving, alternatives are under consideration, and detailed requirements are not yet agreed. As the project proceeds into development and implementation, planning and execution provide more clarity. By termination, most uncertainties have been resolved. This pattern is sometimes described as the cone of uncertainty.


Step-by-Step Solution:
Step 1: Recall that the earliest phase of the project life cycle is the concept phase. Step 2: Recognize that during concept, scope, technology options, and cost ranges are still being explored. Step 3: Understand that later phases use decisions made earlier, which reduces uncertainty. Step 4: Select the concept phase as the phase with the highest typical uncertainty.


Verification / Alternative check:
To verify, consider that in implementation, the team is executing a defined plan, so major unknowns should already be resolved. In termination, the project is nearly complete and uncertainty is lowest. In development, detailed design work reduces uncertainty further compared to concept. Therefore, only the concept phase logically has the highest uncertainty about what will be done and how.


Why Other Options Are Wrong:
Option B is wrong because the development phase already benefits from decisions made during concept, so uncertainty is lower. Option C is wrong because implementation executes plans and should resolve remaining unknowns, not create the highest uncertainty. Option D is wrong because termination focuses on closure, handover, and lessons learned when most uncertainties have been resolved. Option E is wrong because uncertainty clearly changes as more information becomes available; it is not constant across the life cycle.


Common Pitfalls:
Some learners mistakenly think implementation has the highest uncertainty because many things can go wrong during execution. However, from a planning perspective, the largest unknowns about what the project should be and how it should be done occur at the beginning. A related pitfall is underestimating uncertainty during concept and making overly precise estimates too early, which can later prove unrealistic.


Final Answer:
The phase that typically has the highest uncertainty is the concept phase, when the project idea is being defined and evaluated.

More Questions from PMP Certification

Discussion & Comments

No comments yet. Be the first to comment!
Join Discussion