Difficulty: Easy
Correct Answer: if neither I nor II follows
Explanation:
Introduction / Context:
Market-sensitive geopolitical news often moves oil prices regardless of the country’s production status. Here, prices fell when country X allowed UN inspections. We must decide if anything about X’s producer status necessarily follows.
Given Data / Assumptions:
Concept / Approach:
Oil prices can fall if perceived supply risks ease (lower war risk, lower sanction risk, safer shipping), even if the country in question is not directly an oil producer. Likewise, a producer’s favorable move might cut risk premia, but the statement does not assert production. Therefore, neither “X is a producer” nor “X is not a producer” is a necessary inference.
Step-by-Step Solution:
1) Check I: Price reaction alone does not require X to produce oil → does not follow.2) Check II: Equally, the same evidence cannot prove the negative → does not follow.
Verification / Alternative check:
If the statement had said “as the world’s major oil exporter, X’s move cut supply fears,” I might follow. If it had said “X imports all of its oil,” II might follow. We have neither.
Why Other Options Are Wrong:
Only I/Only II: assert more than the text supports. Either: wrong because at least one must necessarily follow; here, none does.
Common Pitfalls:
Equating market reaction with production status; forgetting that prices reflect global expectations, not just direct output.
Final Answer:
if neither I nor II follows
Discussion & Comments