Statement — CSO advance estimates: India’s GDP will grow 4.4% in 2002–03 versus 5.6% last year; the economy has been dragged down by agriculture.\nConclusions:\nI. Agriculture showed negative growth that failed to match last year’s robust growth.\nII. The news is bad for those hoping for an economic recovery.

Introduction / Context:
Growth decelerating from 5.6% to 4.4% with agriculture “dragging” signals macro headwinds. We must separate what is certain from what remains ambiguous.

Given Data / Assumptions:

• Headline growth slows markedly.
• Drag source identified: agriculture.
• No explicit statement of agriculture being negative; only that it reduced overall growth.

Concept / Approach:
Conclusion I asserts negativity in agriculture’s growth; “dragged down” could mean slower positive growth or outright contraction—both are possible, thus I does not follow. Conclusion II reasonably follows: a slower-than-expected GDP trajectory is discouraging for those anticipating recovery.

Step-by-Step Solution:
1) Distinguish “drag” (relative underperformance) from “negative” (absolute contraction).2) Infer sentiment: weaker GDP → bad news for recovery hopes.

Why Other Options Are Wrong:
Only I/Either/Both: assert negativity without textual backing. Neither: ignores the natural market/policy sentiment.

Common Pitfalls:
Equating relative drag with negative growth.

Final Answer:
Only conclusion II follows.