Two students A and B have independent failure probabilities in an exam: P(A fails) = 0.2 and P(B fails) = 0.3. What is the probability that at least one of A or B fails (i.e., A fails or B fails or both)?

Difficulty: Easy

Correct Answer: 0.44

Explanation:


Introduction / Context:
This is a union-of-events problem with independence. We want P(A ∪ B) where A = “A fails” and B = “B fails.”



Given Data / Assumptions:

  • P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3.
  • Independence: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B) = 0.06.


Concept / Approach:
Use inclusion–exclusion for two events: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).



Step-by-Step Solution:
Compute the intersection: 0.2 × 0.3 = 0.06.Therefore P(A ∪ B) = 0.2 + 0.3 − 0.06 = 0.44.



Verification / Alternative check:
Complement method: P(neither fails) = (0.8)(0.7) = 0.56; hence P(at least one fails) = 1 − 0.56 = 0.44 (same result).



Why Other Options Are Wrong:
0.38 is not obtained by any standard combination; 0.50 ignores overlap subtraction; 0.94 is near certainty and clearly too large; 0.56 is the complement (both pass), not the asked probability.



Common Pitfalls:
Adding probabilities without subtracting the overlap when events are not mutually exclusive.



Final Answer:
0.44

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