People speculate when they consider a situation and assume something to be true based on inconclusive evidence. Which situation below is the best example of Speculation?

• Francine decides that it would be appropriate to wear jeans to her new office on Friday after reading about "Casual Fridays" in her employee handbook.
• Mary spends thirty minutes sitting in traffic and wishes that she took the train instead of driving.
• After consulting several guidebooks and her travel agent, Jennifer feels confident that the hotel she has chosen is first-rate.
• When Emily opens the door in tears, Theo guesses that she's had a death in her family.