Difficulty: Medium
Correct Answer: Moody s
Explanation:
Introduction / Context:
Growth forecasts for the Indian economy by international agencies provide important signals to investors policy makers and exam aspirants. In 2017 a well known global rating agency released a poll based assessment that projected India gross domestic product GDP growth in a specific range for the coming 12 to 18 months. This question checks if you remember which institution issued that projection.
Given Data / Assumptions:
Concept / Approach:
To answer accurately you must distinguish between different organisations and how they usually present forecasts. World Bank and RBI publish formal reports and monetary policy statements while Nomura and Moody s often release research notes outlooks and polls of analysts. Among these Moody s is especially known for sovereign ratings and macroeconomic outlooks that mention multi year growth ranges for countries.
Step-by-Step Solution:
Step 1: Note that the question explicitly uses the word poll rather than report or monetary policy review.
Step 2: World Bank typically publishes formal reports such as Global Economic Prospects not described as polls.
Step 3: RBI also issues growth projections in its policy documents and not usually through a separate poll.
Step 4: Financial news in August 2017 reported that rating agency Moody s had conducted a poll of respondents and concluded that India GDP growth would remain in the 6 point 5 percent to 7 point 5 percent band over 12 to 18 months.
Step 5: Therefore the correct answer is Moody s.
Verification / Alternative check:
A further check is to remember that around the same period Moody s also upgraded India outlook after the implementation of structural reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax. Their commentary often combined rating decisions with growth projections described in ranges. This pattern matches the description in the question and supports selection of Moody s over the other choices.
Why Other Options Are Wrong:
World Bank does provide India growth forecasts but the question specific wording about a poll in August 2017 points away from this option.
RBI projections focus mainly on one financial year at a time and are generally communicated through policy statements rather than a separate poll.
Nomura is a global financial services group that also analyses India but the widely discussed 6 point 5 to 7 point 5 percent range in mid 2017 was attributed to Moody s.
Common Pitfalls:
One common error is to pick World Bank because many candidates associate any international forecast with it by default. Another pitfall is ignoring the clue provided by the word poll and year 2017 which specifically relate to Moody s commentary. Always pay attention to such contextual hints in well framed exam questions.
Final Answer:
The projection that India GDP growth would remain between 6 point 5 percent and 7 point 5 percent over the next 12 to 18 months came from a poll conducted by Moody s.
Discussion & Comments