Population forecasting in civil engineering: The shape of the population growth curve commonly observed in demographic studies is identified as which of the following?

Difficulty: Easy

Correct Answer: S-shaped curve

Explanation:


Introduction / Context:
Population forecasting is essential for civil engineering projects, particularly in water supply, sanitation, and urban planning. The growth of population often follows a mathematical pattern that can be represented graphically.


Given Data / Assumptions:

  • Population grows slowly initially.
  • Then growth accelerates rapidly.
  • Finally, it slows down and stabilizes.


Concept / Approach:
The population growth curve is generally represented by a logistic function. It begins as slow growth, then accelerates, and eventually stabilizes due to limiting factors such as resources and space. This results in an S-shaped (sigmoidal) curve.


Step-by-Step Solution:

1. Early stage: population grows slowly (lag phase).2. Middle stage: exponential growth occurs (steep rise).3. Final stage: limiting factors cause stabilization (plateau).


Verification / Alternative check:
This is consistent with logistic growth theory in biology and demography, which civil engineers adapt for long-term planning.


Why Other Options Are Wrong:

  • Parabolic curve: Represents quadratic relations, not realistic for long-term population.
  • Circular curve: Not meaningful in this context.
  • Straight line: Represents arithmetic growth, unrealistic for actual populations.
  • None of these: Wrong because S-shaped is the correct established answer.


Common Pitfalls:

  • Confusing exponential growth with logistic growth; the latter accounts for limitations.
  • Believing all cities grow indefinitely, ignoring saturation effects.


Final Answer:
S-shaped curve

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