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Analysing policy inference from demand–production gap — given 'Domestic demand has been increasing faster than indigenous crude oil production', decide whether importing crude is a necessary inference or whether demand must be reduced

Difficulty: Medium

Correct Answer: Only conclusion I follows

Explanation:

Given data

  • Statement: Growth of domestic demand > growth of indigenous crude production.
  • Conclusions:
    • I: Crude oil must be imported.
    • II: Domestic demand should be reduced.

Concept/Approach

When demand outpaces local supply, bridging the gap by imports is the most direct necessary measure implied. A prescriptive 'demand should be reduced' is a separate policy choice not compelled by the statement.


Step-by-step logic
1) To meet demand immediately, imports are the logical necessity if indigenous supply lags ⇒ I follows.2) The statement does not mandate demand reduction; it merely reports relative growth ⇒ II does not follow.


Verification/Alternative

Alternatives like substitutes or rapid capacity addition are not mentioned; the necessary, near-term implication is import dependence.


Common pitfalls

  • Confusing a feasible policy (reduce demand) with a logical necessity from the premise.

Final Answer
Only conclusion I follows.

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